A Tale of Two Superpowers, One Dysfunctional Oligarchy
I’ve been reading and digging into why so many of those flashy Chinese-funded projects promised during the Duterte years just… didn’t happen. You probably remember the headlines—railways across Luzon, a dam to fix Manila’s water woes, even billions in aid and infrastructure. Big talk. But fast forward a few years? Barely anything got built.
What happened? Turns out, the problem wasn’t just geopolitics or red tape. It was something a lot closer to home—and sadly, very familiar: our own corruption.
China Walks In, Sees the Mess, Walks Right Back Out
From what I gathered, Chinese financiers came in expecting to deal with a government that would give them control, maybe demand a few bribes here and there (that’s normal in a lot of places). But they were shocked—like seriously turned off—by just how many people wanted a slice. Agencies, local governments, contractors, political clans—you name it.
One report described it like this: “a hundred toll booths before you reach the project site.” So even if they were ready to fund something, there were just too many hands asking for something in return. Eventually, they said nope—and quietly pulled out of a bunch of deals.
But the Americans? They’re Still Here
Now here’s the interesting part. The U.S. is no stranger to our corruption either. They’ve been dealing with us since, well, colonial times. But unlike China, they’ve figured out how to live with it. They fund projects through things like USAID (which, in itself, is also corrupt), or funnel money through development programs, military aid, NGOs, and so on. Corruption still happens—but it’s less in-your-face. It’s buried in consulting fees or padded budgets, not bluntly demanded in brown envelopes.
It’s like the U.S. knows the house is messy, but they’re used to it. China, on the other hand, came in thinking it was buying a condo unit and realized it needs major renovation with squatters and no plumbing.
The Divide Among the Filipino Elite
Another layer to this: our own ruling class is divided. There’s a big chunk of tycoons—Chinese-Filipino families—who were open to Duterte’s China pivot at first. Business is business, after all. But they backed off when the money didn’t come through and the risks grew too big.
Then there’s the old Spanish-American mestizo elite—families like the Ayalas, Aranetas, Cojuangcos (Chinese in origin but worship the Americans) —who have deep ties to the West. Their kids study in the U.S., they speak fluent English, they play golf with ambassadors. For them, America isn’t just a partner—it’s part of their worldview. And with Marcos Jr. leaning toward Washington again, this camp is definitely back on top.
The Big Irony
China thought it could buy influence quickly. The U.S. knew it would take patience—and compromise. So now, China’s out (or at least lying low), and America’s right back in the picture, military bases and all.
And we’re still stuck with the same elite, the same corruption, and the same games.
Endnotes
- China’s $24 billion pledge to the Philippines under Duterte: “China’s $24 Billion Promise to Duterte Still Hasn’t Materialized.” Bloomberg, July 2018. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-07-25/china-s-24-billion-promise-to-duterte-still-hasn-t-materialized
- Derailed rail projects (PNR South Long Haul, Mindanao Railway):“Philippines Drops China’s Belt and Road as Tensions Flare.” DW News, December 2023. https://www.dw.com/en/philippines-drops-chinas-belt-and-road-as-tensions-flare/a-67344929
- Corruption and ‘SOP’ culture described by local consultants and observers: Stratbase ADR Institute Occasional Paper – “Hanging in the Balance: Beijing’s Unfulfilled Trillion-Dollar Promise,” May 2021. https://adrinstitute.org
- Quote: “a hundred toll booths before you reach the project site”: Paraphrased from insights of infrastructure consultants published in Rappler and BusinessWorld, 2021–2022.
- Focusing on Fragility: The Future of US Assistance to Fragile States: Center for Global Development, 2019. https://www.cgdev.org/sites/default/files/focusing-on-fragility-report.pdf
- U.S. aid and military influence maintained through joint exercises and multilateral aid: “EDCA Expansion and U.S.–Philippine Military Cooperation.” Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative, 2023. https://amti.csis.org/more-than-meets-the-eye-philippine-upgrades-at-edca-sites/
- Shift under Marcos Jr. toward U.S. alignment: “Marcos Strengthens Ties with U.S. Amid Rising China Tensions.” AP News, July 2025. https://apnews.com/article/fd12cc1c7d9828ec0fec47ca84946aef
- China’s calculation vs. America’s long-game tolerance: “Big Promises But Little Substance: China’s Struggles in the Philippines.” IPS Journal, August 2023. https://www.ips-journal.eu/topics/foreign-and-security-policy/big-promises-but-little-substance-6435/
